OP-ED: Fragility and the Politics of Prevention

Years ago, leaders feared debt, unemployment, or next election. Today, every pressure arrives together: climate shocks, food and fuel crises, rising debt burdens, uncertain development support, public demand-better services, more jobs, better lives.

For countries such as Sierra Leone, this convergence has created what I call the politics of painful choices. Should we invest in climate resilience or expand social protection? Build roads or strengthen health systems? Raise agricultural productivity or meet growing debt obligations? Each priority matters, yet fragile states rarely have the fiscal space to finance all of them at once.

Under such pressure, governments often fall into politics of redistribution, shifting scarce resources from one urgent need to another. What we need instead is politics of prevention—an approach that expands available resources by reducing future risks and lowering long-term costs.

Fragility is too often treated as temporary. For many countries, however, it is not passing moment but enduring condition shaped by weak domestic revenue, climate vulnerability, infrastructure gaps, rapid population growth, and repeated external shocks. These pressures crowd out long-term investment and trap governments in constant crisis management.

One of development’s clearest failures is this: the world still spends far more responding to crises than preventing them. Prevention is almost always less costly than recovery. Investments in infrastructure, climate adaptation, healthcare, and youth employment strengthen the social contract and deepen state legitimacy. Yet these are often the first areas cut when budgets tighten. At heart, this is not only environmental question, but fiscal, social, and political one as well.

Perhaps the strongest case for prevention lies in the first 1,000 days of child’s life. From pregnancy to second birthday, this short window shapes cognitive development, educational outcomes, future earnings, and national productivity. In Sierra Leone, about 700 children are born each day, each one representing future worker, entrepreneur, teacher, or leader. Decisions made during those first 1,000 days will shape national resilience for decades. That is why we treat nutrition not as narrow sectoral concern, but as central development priority—linking Feed Salone, food fortification, school feeding, nutrition-responsive budgeting, and proposed Nourish Salone movement within single national agenda.

Sierra Leone is acting. We are investing in human capital, pursuing agricultural transformation, strengthening climate resilience, and making our economy more attractive to private investment. But national ambition alone cannot close the financing gap.

Future progress cannot rest on aid alone. Global discussions in Hamburg must move beyond declarations and toward practical commitments. Three priorities stand out: more predictable concessional finance for fragile states; stronger risk-sharing instruments and guarantees that make smaller-scale investments viable; and greater flexibility in the way development finance is structured and delivered. Countries on frontlines of fragility, climate change, and demographic change need systems designed for their realities, not models adapted from stronger economies.

Development should not aim merely to help countries manage crises more efficiently. Its purpose is to help them break free from crisis altogether—to move from survival to transformation, from redistribution to productivity, from fragility to resilience, and from dependency to partnership. Fragile states can build that future. The real question is whether the global system will evolve quickly enough to help make it possible.

About the Author: H.E. Dr Mohamed Juldeh Jalloh is the Vice President of the Republic of Sierra Leone.

About the Conference: How can sustainable development advance in world shaped by geopolitical tension, economic constraint, technological disruption, and competing political priorities? In cooperation with the Hamburg Sustainability Conference, the forum “Sustainable Development 2030 and Beyond” brings together leading voices from politics, international organizations, business, academia, and civil society to discuss solutions, priorities, and partnerships for years ahead. Central themes reflect those of HSC 2026, scheduled for June 29–30.